2008 Sichuan earthquake

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This article documents a recent earthquake. Information regarding it may change rapidly as it progresses. Though this article is updated frequently, it may not reflect the most current and/or official information about this earthquake.

2008 Sichuan earthquake
Date	May 12, 2008
Magnitude	7.9 Mw / 7.8 Ms
Depth:	19 kilometres (12 mi)
Epicenter location:	31°00′54″N 103°21′54″E / 31.015, 103.365 (Sichuan earthquake) (Wenchuan County in Sichuan province)
Places affected	China
Casualties:	22,069 (dead) 168,669 (injured) as of May 16.[1]

The 2008 Sichuan earthquake (Chinese: 四川大地震; pinyin: Sìchuān dà dìzhèn), at a magnitude 7.9 M_w, occurred at 14:28:01.42 CST (06:28:01.42 UTC) on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan province of China. In China, it was named the Wenchuan earthquake (Chinese: 汶川大地震; pinyin: Wènchuān dà dìzhèn), after the earthquake's epicenter in Wenchuan County in Sichuan province. The epicenter was 90 kilometres (56 mi) west-northwest of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan, with a depth of 19 kilometres (12 mi).^[2] The earthquake was felt as far away as Beijing (1,500 km away) and Shanghai (1,700 km away), where office buildings swayed with the tremor.^[3] The earthquake was also felt in nearby countries.

Official figures (as of 16 May) state that 22,069 are confirmed dead, including 21,577 in Sichuan province.^[1][4] The Chinese government warned that the death toll could soar to 50,000.^[5] Tens of thousands are missing, many of them buried, and eight provinces were affected.^[6][7] It was the deadliest and strongest earthquake to hit China since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, which killed over 250,000 people.^[8]

[edit] Earthquake details

USGS map of epicenter

The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.8 M_s according to the State Seismological Bureau of China and 7.9 M_w according to the United States Geological Survey. The epicenter was in Wenchuan County (Chinese: 汶川县; Pinyin: Wènchuān Xiàn), Ngawa Prefecture, 75 km west/northwest of Chengdu, with its main tremor occurring at 14:28:01.42 CST (06:28:01.42 UTC), on Monday 12 May 2008.

Fifty-two major aftershocks, ranging in magnitude from 4.4 to 6.0, were recorded within 72 hours of the main tremor.^[9] Preliminary rupture models of the earthquake indicated displacement of up to 9 meters along a fault approximately 240 km long by 20 km deep.^[10] The earthquake generated deformations of the surface greater than 3 meters^[11] and increased the stress (and probability of occurrence of future events) at the northeastern and southwestern ends of the fault.^[11]

Office workers in Chengdu reported a "continuous shaking for about two or three minutes", and many people rushed outside.^[12]

[edit] Tremors felt in different places

Places ordered by distance from epicenter (or time of propagation) :

•  China (mainland): All regions except Xinjiang, Jilin and Heilongjiang were affected by the quake.^[13]
•  Hong Kong: Tremors were felt approximately three minutes after the quake, continuing for about half a minute. This was also the farthest distance from the epicentre felt in Hong Kong's record.^{[14][15][16][17]}
•  Macau: Tremors were felt approximately three minutes after the quake.^[18]
•  Vietnam: Tremors were felt approximately five minutes after the earthquake in Northern parts of Vietnam.^[19][20][21]
•  Thailand: In parts of Thailand tremors were felt six minutes after the quake, continuing for 7 to 8 minutes.^[21]
•  Taiwan: It took about eight minutes for the quake to reach Taiwan, then the tremors continued for one to two minutes; no damage or injuries were reported.^[22]
•  Mongolia: Tremors were felt approximately eight minutes after the earthquake in parts of Mongolia.^[16]
•  Bangladesh: Tremors were felt eight and a half minutes after the quake in all parts of Bangladesh.^[16]
•  Nepal: Tremors were felt approximately eight and a half minutes after the quake.^[16]
•  India: Tremors were felt approximately nine minutes after the earthquake in parts of India.^[16][21]
•  Pakistan: In parts of Northern Pakistan tremors were felt ten minutes after the quake.^[16]
•  Russia: Tremors were felt in Tuva, no casualties reported.^[16]
•  Japan: Tremors were felt in Tokyo.^[21]

[edit] Tectonics

USGS National Earthquake Information

Dr. Harley Benz, US Geological Society

Problems listening to the file? See media help.

According to the United States Geological Survey:^[23]

The earthquake occurred as the result of motion on a northeast striking reverse fault or thrust fault on the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake’s epicenter and focal-mechanism are consistent with it having occurred as the result of movement on the Longmenshan fault or a tectonically related fault. The earthquake reflects tectonic stresses resulting from the convergence of crustal material slowly moving from the high Tibetan Plateau, to the west, against strong crust underlying the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China.

On a continental scale, the seismicity of central and eastern Asia is a result of northward convergence of the Indian Plate against the Eurasian Plate with a velocity of about 50 mm/y. The convergence of the two plates is broadly accommodated by the uplift of the Asian highlands and by the motion of crustal material to the east away from the uplifted Tibetan Plateau. The northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin has previously experienced destructive earthquakes. The magnitude 7.5 earthquake of August 25, 1933 killed more than 9,300 people.

According to the British Geological Survey:^[24]

The earthquake occurred 92 km northwest of the city of Chengdu in eastern Sichuan province and over 1500 km from Beijing, where it was also strongly felt. Earthquakes of this size have the potential to cause extensive damage and loss of life. The epicentre was in the mountains of the Eastern Margin of Qing-Tibet Plateau at the northwest margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake occurred as a result of motion on a northeast striking thrust fault that runs along the margin of the basin. The seismicity of central and eastern Asia is caused by the northward movement of the India plate at a rate of 5cm/year and its collision with Eurasia, resulting in the uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan plateau and associated earthquake activity. This deformation also results in the extrusion of crustal material from the high Tibetan Plateau in the west towards the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China. China frequently suffers large and deadly earthquakes. In August 1933 a magnitude 7.5 earthquake about 90 km notheast of today's earthquake destroyed the town of Diexi and surrounding villages, and caused many landslides, some of which dammed the rivers.

[edit] Immediate aftermath

USGS shake map

An elderly woman was rescued and placed on a stretcher after being trapped for over 50 hours.

Office buildings in Shanghai's financial district, including the Jin Mao Building and the Hong Kong New World Tower, were evacuated.^[25] Phone calls to emergency response numbers in Chengdu were repeatedly busy.^[26] A receptionist at the Tibet Hotel in Chengdu said things were "calm" after the hotel had evacuated its guests.^[27] Meanwhile, workers at a Ford plant in Sichuan were evacuated for about 10 minutes.^[28] The Chengdu airport shut down, and the control tower and regional radar control evacuated. One SilkAir flight was diverted and landed in nearby Kunming as a result.^[29] Cathay Pacific delayed both legs of its daily Hong Kong to London route due to this disruption in air traffic services. Chengdu airport has since reopened on Monday at 8 p.m. (1200 GMT) to limited flights as the airport is used as a staging area for relief operations.^[30]

Reporters in Chengdu said they saw cracks on walls of some residential buildings in the downtown areas, but no building collapsed.^[31] Many Beijing office towers were evacuated, including the building housing the media offices for the organizers of the 2008 Summer Olympics. None of the Olympic venues were damaged.^[19] Meanwhile, a cargo train carrying 13 petrol tanks derailed in a tunnel near Bernama, Gansu Province and caught on fire after the rail was distorted.^[32]

All of the highways into Wenchuan, and some even in the whole Sichuan province, were damaged, resulting in delayed arrival of the rescue troops.^[33][34] Over 2,300 base stations of China Mobile in Sichuan and nearby areas went offline, while the China Unicom network in Wenchuan broke down entirely.^[35][36] In Beichuan county, 80% of the buildings collapsed according to Xinhua News.^[37] In the city of Shifang, the collapse of two chemical plants led to leakage of some 80 tons of liquid ammonia, with hundreds of people reported buried.^[38] In the city of Dujiangyan, south-east of the epicentre, a whole school collapsed with 900 students buried and 50 dead. The Juyuan middle school, where many teenagers were buried, is being excavated by civilians and cranes.^[39] Dujiangyan is home of the Dujiangyan Irrigation System, which is an ancient water diversion project which is still in use and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The project's famous Fish Mouth was cracked but not severely damaged otherwise.^[40]

A bank building in Beichuan after the earthquake.

Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended trading of companies based in southwestern China. Copper rose over speculations that production in southwestern China may be affected,^[41] and oil prices dropped over speculations that demand from China will fall.^[42]

China Mobile had more than 2,300 stations suspended due to power disruption or severe telecommunication traffic congestion. Half of the wireless communications were lost in the Sichuan province. China Unicom's service in Wenchuan and four nearby counties were cut off, with more than 700 towers suspended.^[43]

A portrait of Chairman Mao lying among the earthquake's debris.

Initially, officials were unable to contact the Wolong National Nature Reserve, home to around 280 giant pandas.^[44] However, China’s Foreign Ministry later said that a group of 31 British tourists visiting the Wolong panda reserve in the quake-hit area have returned safe and uninjured to the provincial capital. Nonetheless, the well-being of an even greater number of pandas in the neighbouring panda reserves remains unknown at this point in time. A group of 26 Malaysian tourists including a 90-year-old woman who intially were missing after the earthquake have been found alive. All the Malaysian tourists were not injured and had enough food and water. They are about four kilometres outside Maoxian.^[45]

The Zipingpu Hydropower Plant located 20 km east of the epicenter has been destroyed. The dam has severe cracks and "the plant and associated buildings have collapsed, and some are partly sunk."^[46]. The Tulong reservoir Upstream is in danger of collapse.About 2,000 troops have been allocated to Zipingpu, trying to release the pressure through spillway. In total, 391 dams, most of them small, were reported damaged by the quake^[47].

China's Olympic Games organisers say they will scale down the route of the torch through the country, and there was a minute of silence when the next leg started in the south-eastern city of Ruijin on the Wednesday after the quake.^[48]

[edit] Casualties

According to a continuously updated Chinese online report, the quake caused 22,069 known deaths, but this figure may increase as more reports come in.^[1] In Chongqing, 5 students were reported killed, 20 more buried and more than 100 injured when one primary school collapsed.^[50][51]. Xinhua reported that more than 50 students were confirmed killed and hundreds still buried when the Juyuan high school building collapsed in Dujiangyan, the city nearest to the epicenter.^[52][53] The death toll exceeded 12,000 on May 13, 2008.^[54] In Sichuan, 25,788 people were buried and 1,405 were missing, according to Xinhua.^[55] The Sichuan Daily newspaper reported on its Web site that more than 26,000 people were injured in the Mianyang area.^[56]

Officials and rescue teams have yet to reach some of the hardest hit areas closest to the epicenter due to roadways that were completely damaged or blocked off by landslides. The chief secretary of Wenchuan county said in a short satellite phone call that there were some 30,000 people gathered at the major town waiting for help.^[57] One rescue team reported only 2,300 survivors from Yingxiu, out of a total population of about 9,000.^[58] 3,000 to 5,000 people were killed in Beichuan county, Sichuan province alone, 10,000 injured and 80% of the buildings were destroyed. 8 schools were toppled in Dujiangyan.^[59]

A 56-year-old Taiwanese tourist was killed in Dujiangyan during a rescue attempt on the Lingyanshan Ropeway, where due to the earthquake 11 Taiwanese tourists had been trapped inside cable cars since May 13.^[60]

Experts points out that the earthquake has hit an area that has been largely neglected and untouched by China's spectacular economic rise. Health care is poor in inland areas like Sichuan province, where the magnitude-7.9 quake struck, highlighting the yawning gap between prosperous urban dwellers and struggling rural people.^[61] The Vice Minister of Health Gao Qiang told reporters in Beijing on Thursday that the "public health care system in China is insufficient."^[61] The Vice Minister of Health also suggested that the government would pick up the costs of care to earthquake victims, many of whom have little or no insurance: "The government should be responsible for providing medical treatment to them," he said.^[61]

[edit] Property damage

Rain was among some of the problems in the aftermath of the earthquake. Here, a group of onlookers examine a collapsed building in the rain.

Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide reported official estimates of insurers' losses at US$1 billion from the earthquake, because estimated total damages exceed US$20 billion. It values Chengdu, Sichuan Province’s capital city of 4.5 million people, at around US$115 billion, with only a small portion covered by insurance.^[62]

Reginald DesRoches, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Georgia Tech, pointed out that the massive damage of properties and houses in the earthquake area was because China did not get an adequate seismic design code until following the big Tangshan earthquake in 1976. DesRoches said: "If the buildings were older and built prior to that [1976 earthquake], chances are they weren't built for adequate earthquake forces."^[63]

News report indictates that the poorer, rural villages were hardest hit. Swaminathan Krishnan, assistant professor of civil engineering and geophysics at the California Institute of Technology said: "the earthquake occurred in the rural part of China. Presumably, many of the buildings were just built; they were not designed, so to speak."^[63] Swaminathan Krishnan further added: "There are very strong building codes in China, which take care of earthquake issues and seismic design issues. But many of these buildings presumably were quite old and probably were not built with any regulations overseeing them."^[63]

[edit] Rescue effort

Road debris from the aftermath of the earthquake prevents any rescue workers from easily accessing Sichuan via motor-powered vehicles.

China's President Hu Jintao has said that the disaster response would be rapid.^[64] Just 90 minutes after the earthquake, Premier Wen Jiabao, who has an academic background in geomechanics, flew to the earthquake area to oversee the rescue work.^[65][66][67]

On May 12, 2008, China's Health Ministry said that it had sent 10 emergency medical teams to Wenchuan County in southwest China's Sichuan Province. On the same day,China's Chengdu Military Area Command dispatched 50,000 troops and armed police to help with disaster relief work in Wenchuan County.^[68] But, because of the rough terrain and close proximity of the quake's epicenter, the soldiers found it very difficult to get help to the rural regions of the province.^[69]

The State Disaster Relief Commission initiated a "Level II emergency contingency plan", which covers the most serious class of natural disasters. The plan rose to Level I at 22:15 CST, May 12.^[70]

An earthquake emergency relief team of 184 people (consisting of 12 people from the State Seismological Bureau, 150 from the Beijing Military Area Command, and 22 from the Armed Police General Hospital) left Beijing from Nanyuan Airport late May 12 in two military transport planes to travel to Wenchuan County.^[71]

Many rescue teams, including that of the Taipei City Fire Department, are reported ready to join the rescue effort in Sichuan. However, the Red Cross Society of China said that (on May 13) "it was inconvenient currently due to the traffic problem to the hardest hit areas closest to the epicenter."^[72] The Red Cross Society of China also stated that the disaster areas needs tents, medical supplies, drinking water and foods; however it recommends donating cash instead of other items as of now, as its not possible to reach roads that were completely damaged or places that were blocked off by landslides.^[73]

Falling debris, such as the object that landed on this vehicle, hinders rescue worker's progress as they attempt to cross the mountain.

Persistent heavy rain and landslides in Wenchuan County and the nearby area badly affected rescue efforts.^[74][75] At the start of rescue operations on May 12, 20 helicopters were deployed for delivery of food, water, and emergency aid, as well as the evacuation of the injured and reconnaisance of the quake-stricken areas. By 17:37 CST, 13 May 2008, a total of over 15,600 troops and militia reservists from Chengdu Military Region have joined the rescue force in the heavily affected areas.^[76][77] A commander reported from Yingxiu town, Wenchuan, that around 3,000 survivors were found, while the status of the other inhabitants (around 9,000) remains unclear.^[78]The 1,300 rescuers reached the epicenter, and 300 pioneer troops reached the main city of Wenchuan at about 23:30 CST.^[79] By 12:17 CST, 14 May 2008, communication in the major town of Wenchuan is partly revived^[80]. On the afternoon of May 14, 100 paratroopers, along with relief supplies, parachuted into inaccessible Maoxian County, northeast of Wenchuan.^[81] By May 15, China's Premiere Wen Jiabao ordered the deployment of an additional 90 helicopters, of which 60 will be provided by the PLAAF, and 30 will be provided by the civil aviation industry. This will bring the current total of aircraft deployed in relief operations by the air force, army, and civil aviation to over 150^[82].

The Chinese Government accepted the aid of the Tzu Chi Foundation from Taiwan late on May 13. Tzu Chi is the first aid force outside China to join the rescue effort.^[83] China stated it would gratefully accept international help to cope with the quake.^[84][48] Taiwan has scheduled a direct chartered cargo flight operated by China Airlines from Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport to Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport to send a sum of 100 tonnes of relief supplies donated by the Tzu Chi Foundation and the Red Cross Society of Taiwan to the affected areas. Approval from the PRC Government has been sought, and the chartered flight is scheduled to depart Taipei at 17:00 CST, May 15 and arrive in Chengdu by 20:30 CST.^[85][86] A rescue team from the ROC Red Cross is also scheduled to depart Taipei on a Mandarin Airlines direct chartered flight to Chengdu at 15:00 CST on May 16.^[87]

Francis Marcus of the International Federation of the Red Cross praised China's rescue effort as "swift and very efficient" in Beijing on Tuesday. But he added the scale of the disaster was such that "we can't expect that the government can do everything and handle every aspect of the needs".^[84]

[edit] Foreign and domestic aid

See also: Reactions to the 2008 Sichuan earthquake

Because of the magnitude of the quake, and the media attention on China, foreign nations and organizations immediately responded to the disaster by offering condolences and assistance. On May 14, UNICEF reported that China has formally requested the support of the international community to respond to the needs of affected families.^[88]

[edit] Mainland China

The Ministry of Civil Affairs said $186 million had been donated by the Chinese public. One of the country's most popular sportsman and Houston Rockets' center, Yao Ming gave $214,000 and $71,000 to the Red Cross Society of China. The association has also collected a total of $26 million in donations so far.^[89] Other multinational firms located in China has also announced large amounts of donations.^[90]

The Red Cross Society of China flew 557 tents and 2,500 quilts valued at 788,000 yuan ($113,000) to Wenchuan County. The Amity Foundation already began relief work in the region and has earmarked CNY 1 million for disaster relief.^[91]

On May 15, United Daily News reported that the top ten richest people of China had only donated a little over 32.5 million yuan altogether as of May 13th, drawing accusations of selfishness and callousness from Chinese internet users.^[92]

It was reported that on the May 16th that the government had allocated a total of $772 million for earthquake relief so far, up sharply from $159 million from the 14th.^[93] By the 16th, China also said it has received $457 million in donated money and goods for rescue efforts so far, including $83 million from 19 countries and four international organizations.^[93]

[edit] Countries and regions

•  Australia: The Australian government pledged AU$1,000,000 that would be funneled through the Australian Red Cross to contribute toward relief costs. China was, however, unable to accept the offer as a result of logistical difficulties faced by the rescue operation in the affected region.^[94]
•  Bosnia: The Bosnian Merhamet relief agency has donated $70,000.^[95]
•  Cambodia: The Cambodian Red Cross has donated $10,000.^[96]
•  Canada: The Canadian government has expressed its condolences, and has vowed to take a leadership role in responding to the crisis. It has donated $1 million to relief efforts in China, via the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC). It will also match individual donations to humanitarian organizations.^[97]
•  France: Later this week the French government will send a cargo plane loaded with tents, sleeping bags, blankets, tarpaulins, cooking kits and other materials worth an estimated $385,500.^[98]

•  Germany: As a "first step," the German government pledged $770,000 via the German Red Cross in aid for earthquake victims.^[99]

•  Hong Kong (SAR): The government has pledged to give $38.4 million for relief efforts.^[100] The Hong Kong Jockey Club has offered $3.85 million.^[101] To facilitate individual donations, Hong Kong's post offices and district government offices will act as collection points. Donations made at those places will be passed on to five relief organizations (Hong Kong Red Cross, World Vision Hong Kong, Oxfam Hong Kong, UNICEF and The Salvation Army) for emergency relief operations related to the Sichuan earthquake.^[89][102]

•  India: India underlined its close ties with China and offered assistance worth $5 million to help the victims of the earthquake. This amount would be utilised for relief material, including blankets, tents, sleeping bags, and medicines.^[103]

•  Iran: Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini expressed Iran’s sympathy with China on Tuesday at the death of a large number of people caused by the deadly earthquake. Iran's Ministry of Health has also offered help to the victims in Sichuan. ^[104]

•  Ireland: The Irish government has pledged €1 million in aid to help earthquake relief efforts in China.^[105]

•  Japan: The Japanese government pledged $4.8 million in cash and goods to be disbursed through the Chinese government and international organizations. Tokyo says it is ready to offer further assistance if required.^[106] Chinese government accepted the aid of Japanese rescue team at May 15. The first batch, include 31 members, had arrived at the Beijing Capital International Airport at about 9:25 p.m. on May 15, and they were soon transferred to another flight heading for Chengdu. Another batch, including 30 members, has scheduled to leave Japan for China on May 16.^[107]

•  Macau (SAR): Macau has pledged $14.3 million from the government and $1.43 million from the Macau Foundation.^[89]

•  Malaysia: Local Malaysian Chinese communities, started to make donations on Tuesday 14 May to help the disaster relief work in the earthquake-hit areas in southwest China. Federation of Chinese Associations Malaysia, donated 20,000 yuan (2,800 U.S. dollars) while the Hai-O Group, donated 200,000 ringgit (62,500 U.S. dollars). ^[108] The Special Malaysia Disaster Assistance and Rescue Team (SMART) may be deployed to China to help the earthquake victims in Chengdu.^[109]

•  New Zealand: The New Zealand government has pledged NZ$500,000 to the Red Cross for quake victims.^[110]

•  Norway: The Norwegian government has pledged $3.92 million for disaster relief.^[111]

• Philippines: The Philippine government has pledged $450,000 in aid, and has ordered a Philippine medical team to the region.^[112]

• Poland: Polish Foreign Ministry announced a $100,000 donation in aid to China.^[113]

•  Russia: A transport plane carrying 30 tonnes of relief material from Russia arrived in Sichuan's provincial capital Chengdu on Wednesday, becoming the first batch of international aid to reach China. Another 100 tonnes of goods will arrive on three flights in the coming days.^[114]

•  Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz has donated $50 million in cash and $10 million worth of relief materials.^[115]

•  Singapore: Singapore has donated $200,000 in relief aid, as well as $70,000 raised through fund raisers from local Chinese communities.^[116] A 55-member Disaster Assistance and Rescue Team has also been sent on 16 May.^[117]

•  South Korea: South Korea has pledged roughly $1 million in aid to China. Seoul also plans to send rescue workers.^[118]

• Republic of China (Taiwan): The Executive Yuan announced that the government would donate $65 million in relief aid. President-elect Ma Ying-jeou has donated $6,500. The government also plans to send a 58-person search and rescue team. Taiwanese companies and entrepreneurs have pledged nearly $42.9 million. Formosa Plastics Group alone has offered $14.3 million, while top electronics maker Hon Hai (Foxconn Technology Group) plans to give $8.57 million. From Thursday, Taiwan will also fly chartered aircraft to Sichuan to ship material provided by charity groups.^[119]On May 16, around 150 tons of supplies from Taiwanese Red Cross and the Tzu Chi organization arrived in Sichuan.^[120]

•  Thailand: Thailand has devoted $500,000 to aid disaster relief efforts for those affected by both the earthquake in China and Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar.^[121]

•  Turkey: Turkish Red Crescent sent its rescue team to the area with a budget of US$500,000 as an initial response to the quake. Officials have also announced that the aid might be expanded according to the demands by Chinese Red Cross ^[122]

•  United Kingdom: British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that his country will pledge 1 million pounds (about $2 million) in aid to China.^[123]

•  United States: The US has designated $500,000 as an "initial contribution" in response to an appeal for aid by the International Red Cross. ^[124].

•  Vietnam: Vietnam has devoted $200,000 to aid Sichuan residents affected by the earthquake while Vietnamese Red Cross donated $20.000.^[125]

• Caribbean: The leaders of Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada along with other Caribbean nations on Wednesday, 12 May gave their official condolences to China following the earthquake.^[126]
  • The Barbadian Prime Minister David Thompson, who had just returned from an official government visit to China days before the tragedy^[127], expressed his great sadness at the tragedy and pledged that "The Government and People of Barbados stand in support and in solidarity with the Government and People of the People’s Republic of China in this time of national pain and suffering."
  • The Antigua and Barbudian Prime Minister, Baldwin Spencer, told Premier Wen Jiabao in a message that "his country mourns' those who have died and prays for the speedy recovery of the injured." The Antiguan leader said he "was confident that the togetherness and resilience of the Chinese people combined with your Government's determination to provide for the people of China will result in the Southwest returning to normalcy in the shortest possible time."^[128]
  • The Grenadian Prime Minister, Keith Mitchell also sent his nation's condolences ^[129] after Chinese officials in Grenada stated that all of the Grenadian students schooling in China were safe.

[edit] Organizations

• International Olympic Committee: The International Olympic Committee has sent $1 million in aid.^[130]
• International Red Cross: The International Red Cross has released about $235,000 in emergency funds.^[131]
  • British Red Cross: The British Red Cross has released $49,000 from its Disaster Fund and also launched an emergency appeal on 14 May 2008 to support the Red Cross Movement's response.^[132]
• Oxfam: Oxfam has contributed $1.55 million for emergency relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction.^[133]
• Giving Children Hope: Giving Children Hope is sending a container of relief to China.^[134]

[edit] Signs and prediction

See also: Earthquake prediction

• In 2002, a study by Chen Xuezhong published in the Chinese seismology journal Recent Developments in World Seismology reported that starting 2003 there is a high probability of an M≥7 earthquake in Sichuan Province.^[135] "Sichuan is virtually certain to experience an earthquake measuring above 7 in the next few years" he wrote.^[136]
• In 2006, a study published in the Chinese Journal of Catastrophology (灾害学) reported that the Sichuan-Yunnan region may experience a M≥6.7 earthquake in 2008.^[137]
• On April 26, nearly 80,000 m³ of water that once filled the Guanyin pond of Baiguo township of Enshi City, Hubei province sank underground with a rumbling sound. Changes in the underground waterflow usually indicate changed seismic conditions.^[138]
• On April 26-27, scientists at China's Geophysics Association made a prediction report of a possible M=6 to 7 earthquake in the vicinity of the converging point of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai provinces just south of Lanzhou. The report was sent to China's Earthquake Bureau on April 30. Geng Qingguo later added that the Ngawa area (阿坝地区) will likely experience an M≥7 earthquake on May 8±10 days. Geng also complained that other scientists tread down his findings and considered them as pseudoscience. ^[139]
• On May 3, around 20:00 local time, Ngawa Prefecture's Earthquake Relief Authority received a number of phone calls asking them to confirm or deny a rumor that an earthquake had been predicted for Matang Village of Suomo township in Barkam County (马尔康县梭磨乡马塘村). The Authority then searched for the source of the rumors. Barkam County is about 120 kilometers (about 75 miles) northwest of the epicenter of the May 12 earthquake. On May 9, the official website of the Sichuan Provincial Government reported that the provincial seismological bureau denied making any related predictions. The rumors were traced to a video conference where Barkam County's Geological Disasters Prevention Committee told county officials of a possible "Geological disaster" (地质灾害 Dìzhì Zāihài), but the warning misconstrued as a possible "Earthquake disaster" (地震灾害 Dìzhèn Zāihài).^[140] Soon after the earthquake, this official statement was removed from the offical website of the Sichuan Provincial Government and other news websites in mainland China.
• On May 9, an anonymous user posted a thread on the popular Baidu Forums stating that earthquake clouds were observed in Linyi, Shandong (more than 1400km away from the epicenter), and wondered if an M≥6.0 were to occur in the next few days; this was later confirmed by a user from Tongzhou District in Beijing.^[141][142]
• On May 10, residents of Tanmu village of Southwest town of Mianzhu, Sichuan (less than 100 km from the epicentre) observed hundreds of thousands of toads migrating on a roadway near a pharmaceutical factory.^[143] "The move is because of the change of weather," Shu Shi, director of the Mianzhu forestry bureau, was quoted as saying by local media.^[144] A similar phenomenon was observed a day earlier in Taizhou, Jiangsu.^[145]
• On May 12, sightings of unusually colorful and luminous cloud formations in two cities of nearby provinces more than 400km north east of the epicenter, each at about 30 and 10 minutes before the earthquake, were filmed and photographed.^{[146][147][148]} These colorful clouds were unusual in exhibiting luminous characteristics akin to auroras.
• On May 13, in a press conference held by the State Council Information Office,^[149] the spokesperson restated that earthquake forecasting is a "World problem", and that no prediction notification was received before the earthquake.^[150] The only case in the last 100 years that an earthquake was successfully predicted by an official department was the Haicheng earthquake in 1975 by the China State Seismological Bureau.^[151]

[edit] See also

• Natural disasters in China
• List of deadly earthquakes since 1900
• List of earthquakes
• List of natural disasters by death toll

[edit] References

The references in this article would be clearer with a different or consistent style of citation, footnoting, or external linking.